Overview of the story so far

As a bit of an overview, I thought I’d run through a few stats for the challenge so far to give an idea of how things are going.

If you aren’t aware, this challenge is based on a model that follows betting on odds of 1/10. If we stick to this, we should hit £1000 in 49 bets. So where are we at right now?

We have placed 13 bets so far. Despite trying to stick to the model, most of our bets have come in at better odds than 1/10. In fact, just 3 of the 13 have been backed at 1/10. A full breakdown is as follows:

1/10 = 3 bets

1/9 = 3 bets

1/8 = 4 bets

1/7 = 1 bet

2/9 = 1 bet

1/4 = 1 bet

It is interesting to note that the 1/4 bet was placed on the first day of this new challenge after we had previously lost and was a reckless bet in trying to make up some ground. Similarly, the 2/9 shout was placed under the influence and must be avoided in future! We’ve got away with it so far and they bumped up the pot nicely. However, the drops are now getting steeper and such risks cannot really be taken anymore.

With our pot currently at £51.14, we are £16.62 ahead of the projected pot if we had followed 1/10 all the way through. Technically, we are 4 bets ahead of where we should be at this stage which is huge. If we carry on at the same rate then this challenge could be over in around 37 bets instead of 49. However, we are not looking to rush things or cut corners.

One stat that has me slightly concerned is the average time of placing a bet is in the 34^th minute. The average time the bet lands is the 61^st minute. This looks good on the face of it, but in only two of our bets has a goal come in before half time. I am concerned that statistically we cannot go on forever in picking games that always contain a goal in the second half.

However, the problem is that it usually takes 25-30 minutes or so for the odds to drop to our required level. Maybe we need to look at a few other markets other than over 0.5 goals. Perhaps under 4.5 goals for certain games.

As the pot grows the pressure on picks also grows! I need to tell myself that in reality, we are only playing with that original £10. Hopefully any pressure will sharpen my mind and prevent me rushing into any bets, but I'm certainly seeing the 0-0 potential in each game more now!