29th January - The cruelest of games

On Saturday night I checked through Sunday's potential games and noticed Barca had an early 11am kick off. I was up and looking to be on it. After 40 minutes, the game was still 0-0. Barca had their proflific front three of Messi, Naymar and Suarez playing and should've seen off a struggling Real Betis side. However, if anything, Betis were on top. I got on at 1/10 however, confident of Barca coming out on taking the opportunity to go to the top of La Liga.

Betis continued to dominate, and as the game wore on I felt that they were most likely to score if anything. Sure enough, with time beginning to run out Betis struck on 75 minutes. A good start to the day and the pot increased to £133.75.

Many other games that I was keen on featured early goals, so the next one up was the FA cup tie between Manchester United and Wigan. Despite changes being made, United still had a much stronger side than their Championship opponents. I was a little late getting on, and with 41 minutes, played, I took odds of 1/7. 

In one of our easiest bets so far, Marouane Fellani popped up with a header just 3 minutes after the bet was placed! An easy profit of £19.11 was made and we marched upward to £152.86!

With games involving Napoli and Real Madrid this evening I was perhaps looking at one more bet If the circumstances were right. However, I then noticed what seemed to be a prime candidate in the Belgian First Division. Anderlecht were at home to mid-table Standard Liege and had the chance to go top of the league. To make things even better, Liege had a man sent off in the 2nd minute.

I checked teams - Anderlecht had a full strength side. Their home record was terrific. They had scored 29 goals in 10 home games and won 7 of those. I had noticed this game just before half time and got on at odds of 1/6.

Anderlecht had already had 6 shots on target and another 8 off target. Surely a goal would come in the second half.

The second half carried on as the first. Anderlecht dominated. I was now watching the game. There were so many near misses. Crosses coming in and players missing a connection by millimeters. Shots going wide by an inch.

You can probably guess where this is going...

Still a goal didn't come into the last 10 minutes. But so many chances, so many corners, so many free kicks. As if the football Gods weren't giving us enough of a chance, Liege had another man sent off just before 90 minutes. 

There were 4 minutes of injury time. Another cross came in which was missed by a whisker by the oncoming attacker. Another shot just wide of the post. Another header being deflected behind.

I couldn't believe what was happening. This was a game in which I was so confident of. I've been nervous in so many, but this...this was a game made for goals!

But a goal never came. And whilst Liege celebrated their jammiest 0-0 draw possibly in their whole existence, I was left feeling sick. £152.86 gone. After all the hard work to build it up and just as we're making some real headway.

This was extremely tough. I couldn't have picked a more unlikely game to finish 0-0. A team playing with 10 men since the 2nd minute against a team with a full strength side who are playing to go top of their league. And then down to 9 men for the last 5 minutes. Against a team with a superb home record and whose games average over 3 goals throughout the season. 

The only consolation is that I can have no regrets in picking this game. I don't feel it was a mistake. It was just one of those freak games that can happen in football and that is the problem with this challenge. Sometimes, there is just nothing that can be done despite all the research in the world.

So, for now, it's over. Maybe I'll come back and try again, but the thought of going back to the start is too much right now!

28th January - A huge let off!

Saturday! A day of huge opportunity, and maybe, just maybe, we could reach the £100 mark with a bit of luck.

However, today is my birthday, and I knew that I was going to be largely unavailable for the afternoon games as I was going to be out and about having a few drinks. That was a big blow to those chances of increasing the pot.

So we started on £80.38. First game which I looked at was Bristol Rovers v Swindon. I fancied the Pirates to nab a win and the early part of the game showed them well on top. I was in no mood to waste time and when odds hit after 25 minutes, I was on it.

I got up to make myself a well earned sandwich, and I heard the Bet365 crowd-cheering- soundbite which denotes a goal being scored. Billy Bodin had put Rovers in front just a few minutes after the bet was placed. Up and running, and up to £88.42!

I was keen to continue and in doing some research was looking to get on a game in the Italian youth league. The Campionato Nazionale Primavera Group C league had seen just one 0-0 game played out all season with teams having played around 14 games each so far. Roma youth were obviously a cut above, having won 11 of 14 games so far and there games featured an average of around 4 per game. Cagliari youth were struggling and this should've been a routine win for Roma. 

I would have to wait for the 38th minute before I could place the bets at odds of 1/10. Again, we would barely have to wait for the bet to land. However, as seems to be the way with many of my bets, the unfancied team won it for me, with Cagliari scoring in the 43rd minute. They would eventually lose 5-1 though. My only concern though was that we were now at a tantalising £97.27.

The 3pm games started and in between me getting ready to go out and some indecisiveness on my part, the chances were missed to increase the tally for the day.

But I wasn't done. I wanted one more. But it would create an almighty scare.

Whilst I was out I managed to clock the Lazio v Chievo game in Serie A. approaching half time and at 0-0 still, the stats showed that Lazio were dominating massively. I checked out a few things as best I could. I knew main man Ciro Immobile was suspended, and Balde Keita was injured, so they were depleted up front, but should still be beating Chievo who were massively out of form. 

The odds were 1/4. This would be a huge call. I've said I should be avoiding these risks. but really, I saw a goal in the game purely due to Chievo being so poor, having lost their last 5 games.

I went for it. All in.

Checking my phone with hardly any signal and ignoring the people I was with, I kept seeing the shots count rising. But still no breakthrough. No matter, 30 minutes to go...

20 minutes...

10 minutes...

Oh god...

5 minutes to go! Lazio had had 9 shots on target and 21 shots off target and 10 corners! I cursed myself. Immobile being out was key, of course it was! Why did I risk it?!!

90 minutes were up. I'd had it. Game over. Just as we were making some real big gains as well.

And then...play was suspended on a Chievo attack...

Surely not...! IT WAS!!! At the death Chievo had snatched an unlikely winner for both them and me! I was almost delirious with joy!! Our pot jumped up massively to £121.59 and we hadn't just broken the £100 barrier, we had smashed through it!!

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the day, which also turned out to be a big let off as I probably would've gone in on the AFCON game between Senegal v Cameroon which finished 0-0! 

All we can do is hope for more good fortune tomorrow, but today has seen a profit of £41.21 which is massive gains for the pot.

January 26th & 27th

Thursday was a bit of a dry day for the challenge and the games that were on, I wasn't overly keen on. I felt a bit of fear to be honest, with out pot at £70.33 and I could see the 0-0 potential in several games, such as Man Utd v Hull (potential shutout from the Red Devils, with them already being 2-0 up from the first leg) and also a Dutch Cup game between Vitesse and Feyenoord, which I especailly talked myself out of despite feeling a goal would come. Both games did involve goals, but I didn't feel like I had missed out particularly. Which I took as a good sign.

Friday offered more likely chances, and I especially had earmarked games between Derby v Leicester in the FA Cup, Aberdeen v Dundee and also Osasuna v Malaga.

I missed the chance in the Derby game thanks to Darren Bent's 8th minute on goal. But never mind, Aberdeen were well on top and just before half hour, the odds hit 1/10. I entered our pot total into the betslip and pressed confirm. As I did, betting was suspended. Fuck! Aberdeen scored just 1 second before the bet was to be confirmed. The narrowest of misses!!! I couldn't believe it!!!

Gah!! Never mind. Osasuna v Malaga was still 0-0. And even better, the odds were down to 1/7! I didn't hesitate. I went on it! Half time came and went, the game wore on and I was beginning to fear the worst as we went past 70 minutes.

And then it happened! 76th minute, and it was Osasuna who surprisingly grabbed the goal. Malaga would equalise a couple of minutes later to make a mockery of my fears as the game came to life. The pot rose to £80.38 and as I was out on the pop, I decided to not make the potential mistake of drunk betting! The weekend was upon us, with plenty of chances to make big gains!

January 25th

After going through some of the stats in the last post, I was feeling a bit of extra pressure, especially with the worry that our bets were mostly coming in in the second half of games; a trend which couldn't carry on forever.

With that in mind, I was keen to get on the Leeds v Forest game as soon as possible, as the odds for over 0.5 goals was 1/14 before kick off. As well as that, I had my eye on a couple of other games, such as Celtic v St Johnstone and Juventus v AC Milan.

After 5 minutes, the odds at Elland Road lowered to 1/10. I had done my research, and fancied Leeds big style. Forest are in all sorts of disarray, plus Leeds had influential centre back Pontus Jansson back in the team and Chris Wood is on fire. A goal would surely come sooner rather than later!

Despite Leeds dominating, the goal didn't arrive until, of course, the second half! Wood was indeed the man to net on 55 minutes and we were on the march and up to £56.26!

With the plan of an early goal not exactly coming to fruition, I had a big choice to make. The Juve game was out of the window due to an early goal there. However, the Celtic game was still 0-0...

The odds were 1/4 for a goal in the game. Celtic were dominating. I checked the line ups. A full strength side were playing. Celtic had also won 19 of 20 games so far in the season. The mismatch in the league is ridiculous. It truly is the definition of a one horse race. Which suited me fine.

Despite only today saying that I needed to avoid those more risky 1/4 shots, I went for it. There was still half hour to play, and I couldn't see how a goal wasn't going to come.

We passed the 70th minute and still Celtic were piling on pressure. I began to think of all of those games were overwhelming favourites just couldn't get the win.

Just as I was talking myself into a stir, Dedryck Boyata popped up from a corner to head home on 72 minutes. Easy! And the pot jumped up to a heady £70.33! We didn't even manage to touch the sixties!

Despite a couple of other games still being played I decided to call it a night, more than happy to have made over £19 profit in just two bets.

Overview of the story so far

As a bit of an overview, I thought I’d run through a few stats for the challenge so far to give an idea of how things are going.

If you aren’t aware, this challenge is based on a model that follows betting on odds of 1/10. If we stick to this, we should hit £1000 in 49 bets. So where are we at right now?

We have placed 13 bets so far. Despite trying to stick to the model, most of our bets have come in at better odds than 1/10. In fact, just 3 of the 13 have been backed at 1/10. A full breakdown is as follows:

1/10 = 3 bets

1/9 = 3 bets

1/8 = 4 bets

1/7 = 1 bet

2/9 = 1 bet

1/4 = 1 bet

It is interesting to note that the 1/4 bet was placed on the first day of this new challenge after we had previously lost and was a reckless bet in trying to make up some ground. Similarly, the 2/9 shout was placed under the influence and must be avoided in future! We’ve got away with it so far and they bumped up the pot nicely. However, the drops are now getting steeper and such risks cannot really be taken anymore.

With our pot currently at £51.14, we are £16.62 ahead of the projected pot if we had followed 1/10 all the way through. Technically, we are 4 bets ahead of where we should be at this stage which is huge. If we carry on at the same rate then this challenge could be over in around 37 bets instead of 49. However, we are not looking to rush things or cut corners.

One stat that has me slightly concerned is the average time of placing a bet is in the 34^th minute. The average time the bet lands is the 61^st minute. This looks good on the face of it, but in only two of our bets has a goal come in before half time. I am concerned that statistically we cannot go on forever in picking games that always contain a goal in the second half.

However, the problem is that it usually takes 25-30 minutes or so for the odds to drop to our required level. Maybe we need to look at a few other markets other than over 0.5 goals. Perhaps under 4.5 goals for certain games.

As the pot grows the pressure on picks also grows! I need to tell myself that in reality, we are only playing with that original £10. Hopefully any pressure will sharpen my mind and prevent me rushing into any bets, but I'm certainly seeing the 0-0 potential in each game more now!

23rd & 24th January

Monday saw a very quiet day without much in the way of decent betting opportunities. The AFCON finally decided to come to life and I did fancy goals in the Senegal v Algeria game, but a goal came very early on and I missed the kick off.

 Although slightly tempted by games in Portugal's Primera Liga (Chaves v Nacional) and French Ligue 2 (Brest v Red Star), neither filled me with confidence and I would've been betting for the sake of it. I decided to hold off. After the weekend we had just had, I could afford to go without for a day.

Tuesday looked much more promising. Napoli v Fiorentina was my preferred choice in the Coppa Italia, but the odds for over 0.5 goals was way high even after 20 minutes.

Instead I went for the same bet in the championship game between Brighton and Cardiff. Brighton's home record is outstanding and despite top socrer Glenn Murray being unavilable, the Seagulls still looked too strong on paper against an in-form Cardiff side.

It was a great chance for Brighton to take top spot if they could win, and that swung it for me. On 19 minutes odds were down to 1/8 and I took it, mindful of having missed out on several opportunities lately. Hopefully a quick goal here would still allow me a chance to get on Napoli.

A bit of further digging showed that games between these two do not produce many goals. In fact, the return fixture earlier in the season finished 0-0! I also discovered that most goals in this fixture come after the 70th minute, so we were likely to have a nervy wait. Never mind.

Brighton were on top though, no doubt and had several close calls. It was only a matter of time. And true to form, just as I was beginning to panic, Tomer Hemed scored for Brighton on 73 minutes.

We were in, safe for another day. And although the Napoli ship had sailed (in fact, they only scored a couple of minutes beforehand) I was happy to just have the one bet. Out pot was now up to £51.14 and good strides were being made!

22nd January - Super Sunday!

Sunday morning and I was up and at em! I particularly potentially wanted to get on the early games in both La Liga and Serie A. However, both games featuring Osasuna v Sevilla and Juventus and Lazio featured very early goals which gave us no chance of getting on them. Plan foiled.

However, there was still plenty of other options today. The next big chance came with the 2pm kick off in Serie A between struggling Palermo and in-form Inter. A good omen was that neither side had been involved in a 0-0 this season. I managed to get on the game just after half hour with the away side looking dominant. Our pot from yesterday of £29.37 went on over 0.5 goals at 1/9. Inter would make me sweat a little before eventually grabbing a goal on 65 minutes and we were in business for the day and up to £32.64.

I considered the Arsenal v Burnley game next, but despite the Gunners being well on top, I also worried that it was the sort of game where they struggled to break down a team defending for their lives. The game did eventually deliver goals, but no matter.

The Premier League offered another chance for a winner in the 4.30pm game between table topping Chelsea and lowly Hull. A big injury held the game up for 9 minutes or so, but I got on with 40 minutes on the clock and didn't hesitate when the odds hit 1/10 for over 0.5 goals. Diego Costa was back for Chelsea which made me even more confident with this one. Sure enough, the big man netted 7 minutes into first half injury time and we marched onwards! £35.91!

It wasn't long before we were lucky enough to get on another target in the form of Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo. Both sides averaged over 3 goals a game in the league which boded well. Despite Celta benching top scorer Iago Aspas, I still fancied Sociedad to score, with their impressive home form. I punted our pot on at the half hour point at good odds of 1/8. Despite an open game with loads of clear chances, it would be the 71st minute before Juanmi made it 1-0 to Sociedad and increased our pot up to a healthy looking £40.40!

There was still one more bet in me. The Barca game was an obvious choice, away to Eibar. However I wasn't paying enough attention and missed the chance to get on! However, there was still Roma at home to Cagliari to satiate my needs and somehow the game was still 0-0 at half time. A full strength Roma side, who still had a 100% home record after 9 games and who had scored 27 goals in those games would surely come good. I put the pot on as the game resumed at 1/8 for over 0.5 goals. We only needed to wait 7 minutes for the goal to come and that was that!

The end of a super Sunday which saw us start on £29.37 and end on a hefty £45.45 which is great gains at this early stage still! It is going to be a big week ahead!