29th January - The cruelest of games

On Saturday night I checked through Sunday's potential games and noticed Barca had an early 11am kick off. I was up and looking to be on it. After 40 minutes, the game was still 0-0. Barca had their proflific front three of Messi, Naymar and Suarez playing and should've seen off a struggling Real Betis side. However, if anything, Betis were on top. I got on at 1/10 however, confident of Barca coming out on taking the opportunity to go to the top of La Liga.

Betis continued to dominate, and as the game wore on I felt that they were most likely to score if anything. Sure enough, with time beginning to run out Betis struck on 75 minutes. A good start to the day and the pot increased to £133.75.

Many other games that I was keen on featured early goals, so the next one up was the FA cup tie between Manchester United and Wigan. Despite changes being made, United still had a much stronger side than their Championship opponents. I was a little late getting on, and with 41 minutes, played, I took odds of 1/7. 

In one of our easiest bets so far, Marouane Fellani popped up with a header just 3 minutes after the bet was placed! An easy profit of £19.11 was made and we marched upward to £152.86!

With games involving Napoli and Real Madrid this evening I was perhaps looking at one more bet If the circumstances were right. However, I then noticed what seemed to be a prime candidate in the Belgian First Division. Anderlecht were at home to mid-table Standard Liege and had the chance to go top of the league. To make things even better, Liege had a man sent off in the 2nd minute.

I checked teams - Anderlecht had a full strength side. Their home record was terrific. They had scored 29 goals in 10 home games and won 7 of those. I had noticed this game just before half time and got on at odds of 1/6.

Anderlecht had already had 6 shots on target and another 8 off target. Surely a goal would come in the second half.

The second half carried on as the first. Anderlecht dominated. I was now watching the game. There were so many near misses. Crosses coming in and players missing a connection by millimeters. Shots going wide by an inch.

You can probably guess where this is going...

Still a goal didn't come into the last 10 minutes. But so many chances, so many corners, so many free kicks. As if the football Gods weren't giving us enough of a chance, Liege had another man sent off just before 90 minutes. 

There were 4 minutes of injury time. Another cross came in which was missed by a whisker by the oncoming attacker. Another shot just wide of the post. Another header being deflected behind.

I couldn't believe what was happening. This was a game in which I was so confident of. I've been nervous in so many, but this...this was a game made for goals!

But a goal never came. And whilst Liege celebrated their jammiest 0-0 draw possibly in their whole existence, I was left feeling sick. £152.86 gone. After all the hard work to build it up and just as we're making some real headway.

This was extremely tough. I couldn't have picked a more unlikely game to finish 0-0. A team playing with 10 men since the 2nd minute against a team with a full strength side who are playing to go top of their league. And then down to 9 men for the last 5 minutes. Against a team with a superb home record and whose games average over 3 goals throughout the season. 

The only consolation is that I can have no regrets in picking this game. I don't feel it was a mistake. It was just one of those freak games that can happen in football and that is the problem with this challenge. Sometimes, there is just nothing that can be done despite all the research in the world.

So, for now, it's over. Maybe I'll come back and try again, but the thought of going back to the start is too much right now!

28th January - A huge let off!

Saturday! A day of huge opportunity, and maybe, just maybe, we could reach the £100 mark with a bit of luck.

However, today is my birthday, and I knew that I was going to be largely unavailable for the afternoon games as I was going to be out and about having a few drinks. That was a big blow to those chances of increasing the pot.

So we started on £80.38. First game which I looked at was Bristol Rovers v Swindon. I fancied the Pirates to nab a win and the early part of the game showed them well on top. I was in no mood to waste time and when odds hit after 25 minutes, I was on it.

I got up to make myself a well earned sandwich, and I heard the Bet365 crowd-cheering- soundbite which denotes a goal being scored. Billy Bodin had put Rovers in front just a few minutes after the bet was placed. Up and running, and up to £88.42!

I was keen to continue and in doing some research was looking to get on a game in the Italian youth league. The Campionato Nazionale Primavera Group C league had seen just one 0-0 game played out all season with teams having played around 14 games each so far. Roma youth were obviously a cut above, having won 11 of 14 games so far and there games featured an average of around 4 per game. Cagliari youth were struggling and this should've been a routine win for Roma. 

I would have to wait for the 38th minute before I could place the bets at odds of 1/10. Again, we would barely have to wait for the bet to land. However, as seems to be the way with many of my bets, the unfancied team won it for me, with Cagliari scoring in the 43rd minute. They would eventually lose 5-1 though. My only concern though was that we were now at a tantalising £97.27.

The 3pm games started and in between me getting ready to go out and some indecisiveness on my part, the chances were missed to increase the tally for the day.

But I wasn't done. I wanted one more. But it would create an almighty scare.

Whilst I was out I managed to clock the Lazio v Chievo game in Serie A. approaching half time and at 0-0 still, the stats showed that Lazio were dominating massively. I checked out a few things as best I could. I knew main man Ciro Immobile was suspended, and Balde Keita was injured, so they were depleted up front, but should still be beating Chievo who were massively out of form. 

The odds were 1/4. This would be a huge call. I've said I should be avoiding these risks. but really, I saw a goal in the game purely due to Chievo being so poor, having lost their last 5 games.

I went for it. All in.

Checking my phone with hardly any signal and ignoring the people I was with, I kept seeing the shots count rising. But still no breakthrough. No matter, 30 minutes to go...

20 minutes...

10 minutes...

Oh god...

5 minutes to go! Lazio had had 9 shots on target and 21 shots off target and 10 corners! I cursed myself. Immobile being out was key, of course it was! Why did I risk it?!!

90 minutes were up. I'd had it. Game over. Just as we were making some real big gains as well.

And then...play was suspended on a Chievo attack...

Surely not...! IT WAS!!! At the death Chievo had snatched an unlikely winner for both them and me! I was almost delirious with joy!! Our pot jumped up massively to £121.59 and we hadn't just broken the £100 barrier, we had smashed through it!!

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the day, which also turned out to be a big let off as I probably would've gone in on the AFCON game between Senegal v Cameroon which finished 0-0! 

All we can do is hope for more good fortune tomorrow, but today has seen a profit of £41.21 which is massive gains for the pot.

January 26th & 27th

Thursday was a bit of a dry day for the challenge and the games that were on, I wasn't overly keen on. I felt a bit of fear to be honest, with out pot at £70.33 and I could see the 0-0 potential in several games, such as Man Utd v Hull (potential shutout from the Red Devils, with them already being 2-0 up from the first leg) and also a Dutch Cup game between Vitesse and Feyenoord, which I especailly talked myself out of despite feeling a goal would come. Both games did involve goals, but I didn't feel like I had missed out particularly. Which I took as a good sign.

Friday offered more likely chances, and I especially had earmarked games between Derby v Leicester in the FA Cup, Aberdeen v Dundee and also Osasuna v Malaga.

I missed the chance in the Derby game thanks to Darren Bent's 8th minute on goal. But never mind, Aberdeen were well on top and just before half hour, the odds hit 1/10. I entered our pot total into the betslip and pressed confirm. As I did, betting was suspended. Fuck! Aberdeen scored just 1 second before the bet was to be confirmed. The narrowest of misses!!! I couldn't believe it!!!

Gah!! Never mind. Osasuna v Malaga was still 0-0. And even better, the odds were down to 1/7! I didn't hesitate. I went on it! Half time came and went, the game wore on and I was beginning to fear the worst as we went past 70 minutes.

And then it happened! 76th minute, and it was Osasuna who surprisingly grabbed the goal. Malaga would equalise a couple of minutes later to make a mockery of my fears as the game came to life. The pot rose to £80.38 and as I was out on the pop, I decided to not make the potential mistake of drunk betting! The weekend was upon us, with plenty of chances to make big gains!

January 25th

After going through some of the stats in the last post, I was feeling a bit of extra pressure, especially with the worry that our bets were mostly coming in in the second half of games; a trend which couldn't carry on forever.

With that in mind, I was keen to get on the Leeds v Forest game as soon as possible, as the odds for over 0.5 goals was 1/14 before kick off. As well as that, I had my eye on a couple of other games, such as Celtic v St Johnstone and Juventus v AC Milan.

After 5 minutes, the odds at Elland Road lowered to 1/10. I had done my research, and fancied Leeds big style. Forest are in all sorts of disarray, plus Leeds had influential centre back Pontus Jansson back in the team and Chris Wood is on fire. A goal would surely come sooner rather than later!

Despite Leeds dominating, the goal didn't arrive until, of course, the second half! Wood was indeed the man to net on 55 minutes and we were on the march and up to £56.26!

With the plan of an early goal not exactly coming to fruition, I had a big choice to make. The Juve game was out of the window due to an early goal there. However, the Celtic game was still 0-0...

The odds were 1/4 for a goal in the game. Celtic were dominating. I checked the line ups. A full strength side were playing. Celtic had also won 19 of 20 games so far in the season. The mismatch in the league is ridiculous. It truly is the definition of a one horse race. Which suited me fine.

Despite only today saying that I needed to avoid those more risky 1/4 shots, I went for it. There was still half hour to play, and I couldn't see how a goal wasn't going to come.

We passed the 70th minute and still Celtic were piling on pressure. I began to think of all of those games were overwhelming favourites just couldn't get the win.

Just as I was talking myself into a stir, Dedryck Boyata popped up from a corner to head home on 72 minutes. Easy! And the pot jumped up to a heady £70.33! We didn't even manage to touch the sixties!

Despite a couple of other games still being played I decided to call it a night, more than happy to have made over £19 profit in just two bets.

Overview of the story so far

As a bit of an overview, I thought I’d run through a few stats for the challenge so far to give an idea of how things are going.

If you aren’t aware, this challenge is based on a model that follows betting on odds of 1/10. If we stick to this, we should hit £1000 in 49 bets. So where are we at right now?

We have placed 13 bets so far. Despite trying to stick to the model, most of our bets have come in at better odds than 1/10. In fact, just 3 of the 13 have been backed at 1/10. A full breakdown is as follows:

1/10 = 3 bets

1/9 = 3 bets

1/8 = 4 bets

1/7 = 1 bet

2/9 = 1 bet

1/4 = 1 bet

It is interesting to note that the 1/4 bet was placed on the first day of this new challenge after we had previously lost and was a reckless bet in trying to make up some ground. Similarly, the 2/9 shout was placed under the influence and must be avoided in future! We’ve got away with it so far and they bumped up the pot nicely. However, the drops are now getting steeper and such risks cannot really be taken anymore.

With our pot currently at £51.14, we are £16.62 ahead of the projected pot if we had followed 1/10 all the way through. Technically, we are 4 bets ahead of where we should be at this stage which is huge. If we carry on at the same rate then this challenge could be over in around 37 bets instead of 49. However, we are not looking to rush things or cut corners.

One stat that has me slightly concerned is the average time of placing a bet is in the 34^th minute. The average time the bet lands is the 61^st minute. This looks good on the face of it, but in only two of our bets has a goal come in before half time. I am concerned that statistically we cannot go on forever in picking games that always contain a goal in the second half.

However, the problem is that it usually takes 25-30 minutes or so for the odds to drop to our required level. Maybe we need to look at a few other markets other than over 0.5 goals. Perhaps under 4.5 goals for certain games.

As the pot grows the pressure on picks also grows! I need to tell myself that in reality, we are only playing with that original £10. Hopefully any pressure will sharpen my mind and prevent me rushing into any bets, but I'm certainly seeing the 0-0 potential in each game more now!

23rd & 24th January

Monday saw a very quiet day without much in the way of decent betting opportunities. The AFCON finally decided to come to life and I did fancy goals in the Senegal v Algeria game, but a goal came very early on and I missed the kick off.

 Although slightly tempted by games in Portugal's Primera Liga (Chaves v Nacional) and French Ligue 2 (Brest v Red Star), neither filled me with confidence and I would've been betting for the sake of it. I decided to hold off. After the weekend we had just had, I could afford to go without for a day.

Tuesday looked much more promising. Napoli v Fiorentina was my preferred choice in the Coppa Italia, but the odds for over 0.5 goals was way high even after 20 minutes.

Instead I went for the same bet in the championship game between Brighton and Cardiff. Brighton's home record is outstanding and despite top socrer Glenn Murray being unavilable, the Seagulls still looked too strong on paper against an in-form Cardiff side.

It was a great chance for Brighton to take top spot if they could win, and that swung it for me. On 19 minutes odds were down to 1/8 and I took it, mindful of having missed out on several opportunities lately. Hopefully a quick goal here would still allow me a chance to get on Napoli.

A bit of further digging showed that games between these two do not produce many goals. In fact, the return fixture earlier in the season finished 0-0! I also discovered that most goals in this fixture come after the 70th minute, so we were likely to have a nervy wait. Never mind.

Brighton were on top though, no doubt and had several close calls. It was only a matter of time. And true to form, just as I was beginning to panic, Tomer Hemed scored for Brighton on 73 minutes.

We were in, safe for another day. And although the Napoli ship had sailed (in fact, they only scored a couple of minutes beforehand) I was happy to just have the one bet. Out pot was now up to £51.14 and good strides were being made!

22nd January - Super Sunday!

Sunday morning and I was up and at em! I particularly potentially wanted to get on the early games in both La Liga and Serie A. However, both games featuring Osasuna v Sevilla and Juventus and Lazio featured very early goals which gave us no chance of getting on them. Plan foiled.

However, there was still plenty of other options today. The next big chance came with the 2pm kick off in Serie A between struggling Palermo and in-form Inter. A good omen was that neither side had been involved in a 0-0 this season. I managed to get on the game just after half hour with the away side looking dominant. Our pot from yesterday of £29.37 went on over 0.5 goals at 1/9. Inter would make me sweat a little before eventually grabbing a goal on 65 minutes and we were in business for the day and up to £32.64.

I considered the Arsenal v Burnley game next, but despite the Gunners being well on top, I also worried that it was the sort of game where they struggled to break down a team defending for their lives. The game did eventually deliver goals, but no matter.

The Premier League offered another chance for a winner in the 4.30pm game between table topping Chelsea and lowly Hull. A big injury held the game up for 9 minutes or so, but I got on with 40 minutes on the clock and didn't hesitate when the odds hit 1/10 for over 0.5 goals. Diego Costa was back for Chelsea which made me even more confident with this one. Sure enough, the big man netted 7 minutes into first half injury time and we marched onwards! £35.91!

It wasn't long before we were lucky enough to get on another target in the form of Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo. Both sides averaged over 3 goals a game in the league which boded well. Despite Celta benching top scorer Iago Aspas, I still fancied Sociedad to score, with their impressive home form. I punted our pot on at the half hour point at good odds of 1/8. Despite an open game with loads of clear chances, it would be the 71st minute before Juanmi made it 1-0 to Sociedad and increased our pot up to a healthy looking £40.40!

There was still one more bet in me. The Barca game was an obvious choice, away to Eibar. However I wasn't paying enough attention and missed the chance to get on! However, there was still Roma at home to Cagliari to satiate my needs and somehow the game was still 0-0 at half time. A full strength Roma side, who still had a 100% home record after 9 games and who had scored 27 goals in those games would surely come good. I put the pot on as the game resumed at 1/8 for over 0.5 goals. We only needed to wait 7 minutes for the goal to come and that was that!

The end of a super Sunday which saw us start on £29.37 and end on a hefty £45.45 which is great gains at this early stage still! It is going to be a big week ahead!

21st January

Saturday. A day to make real progress with the challenge. I was determined to get on at least three games today.

First up, the lunchtime kicks offs. Games between Liverpool v Swansea and Rangers v Motherwell were ones identified for goals. I picked the Rangers games after seeing Liverpool largely shut out by the Swans. Over 0.5 goals at 1/7. Of course, the game at Anfield then exploded goals everywhere which left me anxiously hoping for developments at Ibrox. Not for the first time in this challenge, the unexpected team scored and Motherwell took a lead on 74 minutes. Panic avoided! We increased the pot to £24.03.

Then the 3pm games came. I had my eye on Doncaster v Crewe in particular. The odds hit 1/10 and for some reason I hesitated. Of course, Donny then scored as I faffed about and the chance was gone. Lesson learned and a reminder that we are not chasing odds in this challenge.

Nay matter. My back up game was Newcastle v Rotherham and surprisingly the game was still 0-0 after half an hour. Having just lost out, I was straight in with odds of 1/9 for over 0.5 goals. With the game petering out to half time, Daryl Murphy pops up in injury time to secure the bet for us. More small gains and now up to £26.70.

The evening games also provided good opportunity. Man City v Spurs was the obvious pick and after 25 minutes, despite being 0-0 there was plenty of attacking intent to show a goal would be coming. Odds hit 1/10 and I was on it. We would have to wait until the second half for the first goal but it was never in doubt and City went 1-0 up. Boom! Up to £29.37!

There was still one more game in particular I had identified in the Dutch Eredivisie, Runaway leaders Feyenoord were at home to Willem II and surely they would win. I was desperate to get on this game and watched intently waiting for odds to get down to 1/10. On 32 minutes they did. I selected over 0.5 goals and as I entered the stake, Feyenoord scored. Gah! I was fuming. But remembered that anger has no place in this challenge for missed bets!

To avoid trying to force a bet to make up for missing out, I called it a night, happy that we had made good progress for the day. From £21.02 we now stood just shy of £30. Not bad, especially after our midweek loss. We were back in action! And Sunday would provide plenty more chances.

20th January

As feared yesterday there wasn’t much chance to get on any games at all. My eye was on the Roma v Sampdoria game, and after half an hour locked at 0-0 I took a keen interest as this was really the last opportunity to get on something. The odds were still too high, but as we approached 40 minutes on the clock the odds hit 1/10. I hesitated for just a couple of seconds too long, by which time I watched as Radja Nainggolan belt in an improvised volley out of nothing. 1-0 and the chance was gone.

Perhaps on another day I would’ve been more annoyed yet the loss the previous day gave me chance to put things into perspective. There was always tomorrow and we and only missed out on making an extra £1.50 or so.

However today has already started out much better. Bet 4 was presented in the Australian A-League game between table topping Sydney FC and Adelaide United. Sydney are on a great run of form, as opposed to their struggling opponents who are languishing in the table. A full strength Sydney side were on top in the opening half hour without really making it count. Nevertheless, I fancied them to come through big time. All the boxes were ticked – a big favourite playing at home, a full strength side, a team in good form and a team who scores goals. I was confident and perhaps a little over eager. The odds hit at 22 minutes and with last night’s miss fresh in my mind, I jumped on the bet at 1/10 despite a goal not looking overly inevitable. But you can never tell. I maybe could’ve waited, but then I also remembered that this challenge is not about chasing odds. It’s about placing the bet and giving ourselves as much chance as possible.

Half time came and went with the game at 0-0 still and Sydney would wait until the 58^th minute before breaking the deadlock. £15.28 became £16.81 and the bet for the day was done.

However, there is likely to be more to come...

And indeed there was. A night out on the pop made betting difficult, but I managed to place the £16.81 on a Belgian Division A game between Gent and Charleroi. I got on just before half time with odds of a relatively hefty 1/4, much more than we're used to.

Gent looked well on top, and what swung it for me was that their home form was excellent. They had won 10 of 8 games whislt Charleroi were in the midst of a poor run of results. It looked as if Gent had a full strength side out. I weighted it up and decdied to go for it. Perhaps due to having had a few drinks by this point...

However, luck was on our side and a goal did indeed come for the home side on 67 minutes! I resisted the feeling of invincibility and despite several other games I was pleased with increasing the pot to £21.02 and stayed disciplined!

New day, new challenge

I couldn't resist one more bet last night. The Copa Del Rey game between Real Madrid and Celta Vigo was goalless approaching half time and odds for over 0.5 goals were down to 1/9. Seizing an opportunity to make a bit more gains on the money lost yesterday, I invested the small pot of £13.75. A goal did indeed arrive but not for Madrid as expected, as Celta took the lead on 64 minutes. It didn't matter to me. We clawed back a bit more and increased our winnings to £15.28. Respectable gains after the earlier hammer blow!

I’m trying to think of some ways to make this challenge more failsafe. There will always be the chance of being nobbled, but there are certainly ways of minimising risk.

Patience is absolutely key. Yesterdays downfall was due to trying to rush a bet through. I can’t make that mistake again.

Secondly, research is vital. I can’t go in betting blind just on a hunch. Team news needs to be checked before anything is placed. League tables need to be checked. Form needs to be looked at.

Also, there was a fear creeping in of maybe missing a bet opportunity which contributed to yesterdays loss. I can’t let that fear influence a bet. If there is a day without a suitable bet, then so be it. There is always tomorrow.

Having said that, I am likely to be scrapping the one bet a day rule. Especially on weekends when there are so many opportunities. The idea behind it was that it should minimise risk by just having to pick out one game a day. Whilst I do think I will still mostly stick to this, weekends offer the chance to place several bets in one day without being rushed or panic betting. There is no benefit in missing out on this.

Additionally, it may be worth focusing on games where the home team are big favourites to win and hope that they don’t score in the first half hour or so. Balancing the odds is a big factor in this though. If the home side is too big a favourite, then the odds for a goal in the game take longer to drop. It helped us in previous games featuring Napoli and Braga at home. Maybe we’ll try to experiment with this where possible, but it isn’t a strict rule.

Day 9 - Nobbled...but not beaten yet

I am almost too distraught to write this post! After 8 solid days of careful planning and betting, today I broke one of my own cardinal rules! After feeling slightly pressed for time and worrying about missing out if the evening games didn’t pan out as planned, I wanted to complete an early challenge today. I hastily plumped for an 11am game in the Turkish Cup between Gumushanespor, a third division side and top tier Trabzonspor. In play stats looked good, odds favoured the much mightier away side, and without much time to research, I struck the bet.

I then managed to delve a bit further into things – Trabzonspor had scored just 14 goals in 17 league games. Also, I hadn’t checked out team news or anything else. I felt sick instantly. Despite this, Trabzonspor looked dominant. The first half ended. And as the second half drew on, the shots dried up and the inevitable 0-0 scoreline finally crushed me. All the pitfalls I had set out to avoid I had fallen into. A lack of patience. Over confidence. And betting blind.

It was hard to take, especially as I had been so careful up until this point and navigated away from such traps. This was completely avoidable which makes it so much worse.

The thought of spending another 8 days just to get to where we were was soul destroying. But back on the horse we must get. And I already have done.

Perhaps stupidly, I was on a rampage, determined to make up some losses. The lunchtime game in the Indian I-League looked promising with Bengaluru looking likely to beat Mumbai. From what I could tell anyway. I threw caution to the wind and abandoned all sense that had gotten me to day 8 in good shape.

With 32 minutes played I was on it at odds of 1/8. A goal followed in the 45^th minute and we were back up and running to £11.25.

That wasn’t enough. The Saudi Arabian Kings cup game between Al Hilal Riyadh and lower tier Al Qaisoma was underway. I had noticed that Al Hilal were big favourites before kick off and I kept an eye on proceedings! At 40 minutes, the score was still 0-0. The home team were massively on top. I lumped our pot on for Al hilal to win at 2/9. I needed to make gains.

I don't know who scored first but with 10 minutes to go it was 1-1! Surely I couldn't crash and burn so soon yet again?! No! Al Hilal duly obliged with a goal in the 83rd minute and held on for a win. We stepped up to £13.75

In the evening, the games that I had been looking at all had early goals which is what I had originally been worried about all along at the start of the day! Newcastle were up early against Birmingham, Lazio grabbed a quick goal against Genoa and for some reason I didn't have the nerve to back Liverpool away to Plymouth at 1/5. Likewise, I saw the Southampton v Norwich game as a potential low scoring game.

So for now, I'm leaving it there. It's been a tough, disappointing day. But at least we're back up and running already.

Day 8 - Another quickie

Day 8 provided a few likely looking games. We had some F.A Cup replays kicking off at 7.45pm which looked like having some obvious favourites for the tie, which in turn held over 0.5 goals potential. In those failed we had a couple of 8pm kick offs to fall back on.

My preferred pick was Wimbledon at home to non-league Sutton Utd. Despite a stalemate at the first attempt, I fancied Wimbledon to progress. However a goal within 10 minutes scuppered that plan.

Never mind. With that option gone, I instead decided to plump for Barnsley v Blackpool. This game also ended 0-0 a couple of weeks ago, but I fancied at least one goal to come tonight, probably from Barnsley as they fielded a full strength line up which had served them well so far in the League.

With 22 minutes gone odds had already dropped to 1/9. Lines up looked solid, match stats showed plenty of shots coming in and I was hooked. The bet of £24.11 was on!

Just 8 minutes later my hunch was rewarded! At least in part. There was a goal, but my tipster powers didn't envisage it would be Blackpool to break the deadlock, but that's what happened on 30 minutes. Not that it mattered much to me. The best thing that can happen during these bets are for the goals to come in so quickly. Stress levels remain low!

So, now that's 8 bets down, just 41 more to go! Our pot creeps up to £26.79

Day 7 - Low battery panic

Day 7 was one of slim pickings for the challenge. With not many games being played, i focused mainly on Torino v Milan in Serie A and Malaga v Real Sociedad in La Liga.

I was on a train as the games kicked off. With an increasingly low battery I was frantically checking team news and odds. Torino took a lead just as the odds for over 0.5 goals was about to hit and despite a busy start in the Malaga game, I didn't feel confident despite both teams recent fixtures featuring plenty of goals.

Yet as the odds hit, I noticed another game over in Portugal had kicked off slightly later. 4th placed Braga at home to bottom of the league Tondela. Yes! This was the game for me!!

With battery dwindling by the second, I managed to stick out the first 15 or so minutes as the game remained 0-0. Despite Braga being big favourites, it only took around 20 minutes for the odds to drop to 1/10. As it did, I put our pot of £21.91 on.

My battery was in pieces. Now in a car, I was reserving checking on 3 minute intervals. I made it only to discover that I had forgotten my phone charger on my travels!!!

Down to 2% battery, the game had moved into the second half. On my phones deathbed, the news filtered through that Braga had taken a 49th minute lead! My phone could now die in piece!!

We banked our pot which has now risen to £24.11 and move forward celebrating one week unscathed!

Day 6 - The stuff of betting dreams!

With plenty of football on offer again today we were almost spoiled for choice for today's challenge bets. After a busy Sunday morning, I finally managed to sit down at around 2:30pm - immediately one game caught my attention. Napoli v Pescara.

Locked at 0-0, Napoli were huge favourites on their own patch to see off a team who had amassed just 9 points from their 18 league games so far. With half hour gone, odds were still 1/16 for over 0.5 goals. I watched on, hoping to be able to get on. Surely the gulf in class would see out in this game?

In truth, Napoli didn't seem to be threatening too much. The odds hit but I hung on a bit longer. I checked line ups. Napoli had a full strength side playing. With nothing much of note happening in the game, I braved it out for a little longer and managed to grab odds of 1/8 in the 44th minute, just before half time.

The second half got underway and we had played things perfectly. in the 47th minute centre back Lorezno Tonelli popped up to break the deadlock!

We had a total of 3 minutes of game time to wait which is obviously great for my stress levels! If only every bet would be this plain sailing!

Our £19.47 bet smashed us through the £20 barrier and our pot stands at £21.91!

Day 5 - A change in strategy

The early League 2 game between Notts County and Mansfield initially tickled my fancy for over 0.5 goals to continue the challenge. County ship so many goals and Mansfield are in good form. However, I didn't like the possible new manager effect with Kevin Nolan picking up the reigns at Meadow Lane this week which could make them a bit more resilient. At the moment with 15 minutes to go, it is still 0-0. Potential close escape.

Instead I have plumped for a bit of a change to the usual over 0.5 goals market. Arsenal take a trip to struggling Swansea this afternoon and are big favourites at 1/2. However, you can back the Gunners with an extra bit of insurance in the handicap markets at +1 at odds of 1/9. So I have done.

Arsenal have a full strength team out and should have too much for the Swans as it is. Backing them with a one goal head start means that the bet can only lose if Swansea win. Fairly confident on this one, but you never know...

UPDATE

It was a stroll in the park in the end! After a decent start by Swansea, in-form Oliver Giroud broke the deadlock on 37 minutes. That effectively put Arsenal 2-0 up in our bet and it was plain sailing from there. A couple of own goals helped us along further before Alexis Sanchez added a fourth.

It's also worth noting that we dodged yet another bullet in the Notts County game which did indeed finish 0-0. We are always close to being nobbled! With just 5 bets down we still have a long way to go. Avoided pitfalls will be tricky.

I do like this +1 market as an alternative to the 0.5 goals tactic. It may be worth mixing it up now and then. Whilst picking out one game a day to avoid a 0-0 scoreline should be so easy, it can trip us up at any time.

But for now, the pot is up to £19.47 and we should begin to notice a bit of a steeper climb in out profits from now on.

Please feel free to make any suggestions or comments to help! @lovespud83

Day 4 - Living dangerously!

It hasn't taken long for signs of impatience to come to the surface. Day 4 of the challenge is already in due to a slightly kamikaze approach which is in truth best avoided and what I had hoped to cut out.

A cursory glance at in play games earlier this lunchtime led me to the Iranian Persian gulf Pro League. I liked the look of Zob Ahan who could go third with a win at home to lowly Mashhad. A check of the usual form stats showed that the Zob's (as they have probably never been known as until now) should be winning this comfortably.

With half hour of the game gone at 0-0, The Zob's were looking well on top. From what I could tell, they had their usual first team out on the pitch.

The other thing that i noticed whilst doing some quick research is that whilst there aren't bagfuls of goals in the Iranian league, there are also very few games ended 0-0. A single goal is a popular scoreline.

At 36 minutes I was all but decided. The odds were incredible at 2/7 for over 0.5 goals. Could there be a catch. Was there something I had overlooked?!

In a snap decision I had gone for it. It broke all our rules about following 1/10 shots only. However, I couldn't resist.

The first half ended 0-0. The second half then started slowly. I had surely made a terrible mistake!!!!

However, The Zob's soon kicked into life and shots came flying in. Time ticked on and the panic began to kick in. However on 69 minutes The Zob's came good with Yaser Feyzi (OOOOH YASER FEYZI!!!) scoring his first goal of the season!

Our pot swelled up enormously due to this 2/7 shot and with a profit made of £3.90, we now stand on £17.52!

Kamikaze tactics must surely be reigned in,, but today was a victory for bravery!

First bullet dodged! Day 3

I am adopting a new motto for the challenge - research is everything! As posted earlier in the day the two Copa del Ray ties interested me. Having checked a bit further into things, it turned out that the games were both second legs of the tie. My initial fancy was for the Eibar game as Osasuna are absolutely awful. The odds actually started out better than the Celta v Valencia game also and would take less time to hit.

However both Eibar and Celta had commanding three goal leads in their favour. Upon checking line ups, Eibar pretty much had a second string out. I wasn't confident in Osasuna's abilities to make the most of this fact either. Watching the game, there were no shots, and the game was really slow.

The Celta game however looked much more promising and open. As both games kicked off early at 6pm I was rushing to check team news and line ups. With the exception Iago Aspas who was benched, Celta still fielded a strong side and were looking good and more importantly, looking likely to score against a poor Valencia side.

As a bonus through checking line ups, the odds for over 0.5 goals had dropped to 1/8 after half an hour of play. It was on! 

A goalless first half wasn't too much of a worry, and with the Eibar game producing zero shots on or off target I was confident in my choice.

Celta kept my waiting slightly longer than I'd have liked, but did make the breakthrough on 61 minutes through Guiseppe Rossi (who seemingly has been around for years but is only 29 still). Our 1/8 shot had made us a profit of £1.52 to take us up to a total of £13.62!

And Eibar v Osasuna? Yep, that finished 0-0.

Day 3 - 12th January - Preview

Still in the midst of cup week, the Copa Del Rey offers a couple of promising looking picks for today’s bet. Valencia and Osasuna are both in action away from home and both teams possess leaky defences as witnessed by their 3-3 draw when they met at the weekend. Their opponents tonight, Celta Vigo and Eibar respectively, should both manage to find some joy against them. Both are priced up as 1/16 for over 0.5 goals before kick off which should take no longer than 10-15 minutes to drop to 1/10.

There is also a lone Championship game, in which Reading should get the job done at home to QPR. Reading are excellent at the Madejski and at 1/16 also for the same market, represent a good alternative if needed.

Any suggestions welcome! @lovespud83

11th January - live update!

After a check of team line-ups I was happy to still take a punt on over 0.5 goals in the Juventus - Atalanta game. Juve's line up was pretty strong with Higuain a notable exception, and Atalanta had a full strength side out. However...

I have gone with over 0.5 goals in the Southampton v Liverpool game instead. Mostly due to the fact that the odds dropped to 1/10 after just 2 minutes, giving us the vast majority of the game, whereas the Juve game would rob us of around 20-25 mins or so before the odds hit for us.

Despite a 0-0 in their last meeting a couple of months ago, Liverpool have fielded a strong line up and to be fair so have Southampton. However, Jose Fonte has been left out due his contract issues and that could be a big factor in the Saints defence tonight. Klopp should be looking to take a goal back to Anfield for the return leg at the least.

After 15 minutes, it's 0-0, but fingers are crossed...

20:06 - Update

GOAL!!!! 20 minutes on the clock and Nathan Redmond scores for Southampton!

To makes things even better, Juve have also netted before the odds in their game reached 1/10, making me feel extra smug right now.

Day 2 ends with our pot now extended to £12.10! Little steps at the moment, but it's been a great start so far

11th January - Tricky picks

Games for the 11^th January are looking potentially tricky for a reliable pick. The Spanish Segunda game between lowly UCAM Murcia and top of the table Levante caught my eye, but despite their dominance in the league, Levante have scored just 26 goals in 19 games. This is reflected in the price; over 0.5 goals is just 1/8 before a ball is even kicked.

A more likely proposition is the Coppa Italia tie between Juventus and Atalanta. Team news will need to be looked at later, but both teams score goals aplenty in Serie A and you have to go back to 1997 for a 0-0 between the sides. As a quarter final game, the tie is one legged and will be decided tonight. Over 0.5 goals is 1/20 so we would need the game to stay goalless for 20 minutes or so. Hopefully a cagey first half ensues.

Other potential picks are PSG to beat Metz outright at 1/10 which normally I would avoid at that price for an outright win, and the Southampton v Liverpool League Cup game could interest with odds for over 0.5 at juts 1/14 pre-kick off.

Any suggestions for tips or comments at any time are appreciated- find me on Twitter @lovespud83

Up and running!

Going forwards I hope to write up what I’m planning to bet on in advance as much as possible and perhaps maybe even in real time sometimes. However, the first bet of the challenge was placed last night. The obvious contenders for the day were games involving Man Utd v Hull and Napoli v Spezia. However both teams were heavily odds on and as such the over 0.5 market would take a long time to come down to our level. The EFL Checkatrade trophy was also in progress but was a largely unknown territory for me in terms of working out if players had been rested or not. Plus, betting markets for these games seem to be minimal and in some cases not even available. In search of an alternative I landed on the French League Cup game between Ligue 2 outfit Sochaux and Monaco.

Whilst knowing little of Sochaux’s team, Monaco had put out a decent side. Valare Germain and Guido Carrillo both started up front. Whilst top scorer Falcao was on the bench, I saw this as some extra insurance – the tie needed to be settled tonight, and he would probably be involved at some point if Monaco needed a goal. Odds were not too ridiculous, kicking off at 1/16 for over 0.5 goals. This would drop to 1/10 fairly soon. Sure enough after 12 minutes, the odds hit and the tenner went on.

In what I hope is a good omen, we didn’t have to wait long at all for the deadlock to be broken. Yet it was Sochaux who went ahead on just 16 minutes. Our challenge was up and running within 4 minutes and we had made a £1 profit!

I was soon cursing myself for imposing a one bet a day rule on myself as the Man Utd game remained goalless long enough for 0.5 goal odds to tumble right down to 1/6. However, a lack of patience has been my downfall in this challenge before and I comforted myself with that fact as Juan Mata scored shortly after.

The main thing is that we are up and running and now have a pot of £11!

What is Operation One Grand?

Welcome to Operation One Grand, a £1-£1000 challenge betting challenge.

I have attempted these sort of challenges before and they are bloody hard work and incredibly frustrating when it all goes wrong. I’m no betting expert and never claim to be, but I am a regular punter and enjoy pawing through the games and stats just to find that value bet in the Estonian third division. However, this is a different animal.

In the past I have found that these sort of challenges mostly fail due to a lack of discipline and by trying to cut corners. Trying to rush to get to the target more quickly rather than biding my time. So this time, there will be strict rules.

The original model behind these sort of challenges is to pick out a 1/10 shot for each bet and roll over the winnings for each subsequent bet at the same odds. Following this, you can reach £1000 (or £1,066.60 to be exact) in 49 bets.

In the past I have started out with good intentions but have become frustrated with the slow progress at the beginning of the challenge. For example, it takes eight bets even just to break the £20 mark. So why not start off at £20?

Because the challenge is £10-£1000! Plus if we fail and need to start again, I’d rather be depositing a tenner rather than £20 each time.

A 1/10 shot should sail in. But of course there are always shocks and things don’t go according to plan on a fairly regular basis. Only the other day Liverpool started off at prices around 1/16 in their F.A cup tie at home to fourth tier Plymouth Argyle. The game ended 0-0. So banana skins are always there. However, this is where a bit of research and caution comes into play. Liverpool’s starting eleven was their youngest ever fielded. The potential for something to go wrong was there. The prices offered by the bookies simply didn’t take that into account. Minimising risk is a huge part of this challenge.

However, we can do all the research into form and frequent scorers and longest runs since a 0-0 and such like, but if I've learnt anything in all my time watching the game (and betting on it), football has a habit of making people look like idiots.

So, rule. Well, the main one is to avoid the temptation of cutting corners. So, only one bet per day will be placed. Today is the 10^th January, which means that if everything goes according to plan then we will hit our target on 28^th February. It’s a slow burn but hopefully that will help rather than trying to cram several bets into a single day and rushing things.

The main market I will be looking at is the over 0.5 goals in a game. This means we just need to avoid a 0-0 game. In the grand scheme of things, 0-0 games are relatively few and far between. Out of all the games that are played around the world each day, we just need to pick one single game each day that has at least one goal scored in it. Sounds easy right?

The problem is that even after identifying a suitable game to bet on, most games for this market will start off at odds worse that 1/10. Depending on the game it may be 15-30 minutes before the price comes down to what we need. Obviously some games will see a goal fly in sooner than this, so multiple options will be needed as backup. Tricky.

So, what have we got to lose? Oh, yeh, a tenner. But let's see how it goes anyway...